The ongoing effort to link Subscriber Identification Modules (SIMs) with National Identity Numbers (NINs) in Nigeria has encountered significant obstacles, notably the widespread ownership of multiple SIM cards and the rising cost of living. These challenges from the NIN-SIM linkage have led to increased SIM abandonment and numerous deadline extensions, complicating a process seen as vital for national security and economic growth.
Multiple SIM Ownership: A Double-Edged Sword
The practice of owning multiple SIM cards has been both a catalyst for Nigeria’s mobile revolution and a major impediment to the NIN-SIM linkage exercise. The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has highlighted that, on average, each NIN is linked to at least three to four SIMs. While this trend has driven mobile penetration across the country, it now presents a formidable barrier to completing the linkage exercise, which is crucial for enhancing security, reducing fraud, and fostering greater participation in digital services such as e-commerce and mobile banking.
As of March 2024, Nigeria had 219.01 million active mobile lines. However, despite significant progress—with 153 million SIMs already linked to NINs, reflecting a 96% compliance rate—an estimated 66.01 million lines remain unlinked. This gap underscores the complexity of the task, with analysts pointing to multiple SIM ownership as a primary reason for the slow progress.
The Hidden SIMs: A Growing Concern
The prevalence of multiple SIMs has also revealed a deeper issue: the existence of SIM cards that users have forgotten or are unaware they even own. According to the NCC, some individuals possess an alarmingly high number of SIM cards—sometimes exceeding 100,000. These SIMs are often found in devices such as car trackers, POS machines, MiFi routers, and other gadgets, which makes them easy to overlook. This widespread use of SIM cards in various devices has added layers of complexity to the linkage process.
Gbenga Adebayo, president of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), has pointed out that the inclusion of such SIMs in the NIN-SIM linkage exercise presents significant challenges. The linkage process requires accurate and consistent data across all SIMs linked to a single NIN, which can be difficult to achieve given the diverse uses of these SIM cards.
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Economic Pressures and SIM Abandonment
Compounding the problem is Nigeria’s rising cost of living, which has led many consumers to abandon some of their SIM cards. With inflation reaching 33.40% in July 2024, maintaining multiple SIMs has become increasingly burdensome for many Nigerians. This economic strain has prompted some subscribers to abandon their SIMs, particularly those tied to debts owed to telecom operators. According to Adeolu Ogunbanjo, president of the National Association of Telecoms Subscribers (NATCOMS), some individuals abandon SIMs to avoid paying accumulated debts, opting instead to acquire new SIM cards.
This trend of SIM abandonment has had a direct impact on the progress of the NIN-SIM linkage exercise. Many subscribers who believed they had successfully linked their SIMs to their NINs have found their lines barred due to conflicting or inaccurate data provided during the registration process. This has led to widespread confusion and frustration among users, further complicating the efforts to achieve full compliance.
The Economic Impact of Unlinked SIMs
As the September 14, 2024 deadline approaches, the potential economic impact of unlinked SIMs is becoming increasingly clear. Analysts warn that the barring of unlinked lines could significantly affect the revenue of telecom operators. The average revenue per user (ARPU) in Nigeria was estimated at $3.92 in 2023. This means that for every 1 million subscribers who fail to link their SIMs to a NIN by the deadline, telecom operators could lose approximately $3.92 million (N6.29 billion) in potential revenue.
NCC’s Firm Stance and Future Implications
Despite these challenges, the NCC remains resolute in enforcing the September 14 deadline. The Commission has emphasized the importance of the NIN-SIM linkage for safeguarding national security and ensuring the integrity of mobile numbers. However, the effectiveness of this exercise is also tied to how well security agencies utilize the SIM-NIN database to combat crime. Former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami, revealed earlier this year that security agencies have not fully leveraged the database to address issues such as kidnappings and phone-related offenses.
As the deadline draws near, the telecom industry and its millions of subscribers face a critical juncture. The eventual barring of unlinked lines could have wide-reaching implications, not only for telecom operators but also for the broader digital economy. The success or failure of this initiative will likely set a precedent for future regulatory efforts aimed at enhancing digital security and compliance in Nigeria.
